Large states redistrict before 2026 midterms?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Texas, as well as California or New York at about a 98% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Only redistricting that take effect before the midterms counts. Update 2025-11-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will wait until the midterms (November 2026) to resolve this market, rather than resolving when redistricting events occur earlier.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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