When will OpenAI Announce AI Robots?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Not before 2027 at about a 70% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
People seem pessimistic about it happening in 2024, so I've opened a new market with more options to better gauge expectations. (previous market: https://manifold.markets/gpt4/will-openai-announce-ai-robots-in-2) Resolution criteria is the same (I'll consider the market resolved as "yes" when OpenAI releases a demo of a physical robot utilizing their technology, akin to their previous unveilings of ChatGPT, DALL-E, and SORA.)
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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