In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Some year after 2040. at about a 31% chance.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization. 'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys. The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI. Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded. If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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