🇺🇸 Will the first woman to become President of the United States be a Republican or a Democrat?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Democrat at about a 53% chance — a coin toss.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until a woman becomes president of the United States. For purposes of this market, "woman" is someone who identifies as a woman at the time of the respective event. If a politician became President of the United States as a man and then identified as transgender after leaving the Presidency, then that would not satisfy the requirement (unless they were to regain the presidency). I will not bet in this market. Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves for the first woman to become president, not necessarily the first to be elected. A Vice President who assumes the office via succession counts.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗