Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 38% chance — less likely than not.
Across venues
· updated 8mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Prediction markets collectively imply about a 38% chance the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026, with very close agreement across venues.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 38% right now.
The Clarity Act's odds have been volatile as it advanced through a House subcommittee but remains stuck on a contentious provision to prevent presidents from personally profiting off crypto, with the 7-day drop reflecting deepening partisan divides over that ethics rule.
📊 Base rate: Major financial regulatory bills in the U.S. have roughly a 40-50% chance of passage in a divided Congress within a two-year session, based on historical data from the GovTrack.us database for similar market-structure legislation.
What's driving it
- • A House subcommittee advanced the bill on July 25 (Legis1), which likely contributed to the 24-hour +3 point uptick.
- • The 7-day -7 point decline appears driven by reports that debate over rules to stop a president from selling coins is miring the bill (NYT, Jul 22), raising doubts about final passage.
- • Critics warned that proposed changes could still allow Trump to profit from crypto (Forbes, Jul 23), adding to uncertainty about the bill's viability.
- • Bitcoin price drops and ETF outflows were linked to Clarity Act woes (Benzinga, Jul 25), suggesting market sentiment is weighing on political momentum.
The case for YES
- • The bill cleared a House subcommittee on July 25 (Legis1), showing it still has a legislative path forward with bipartisan engagement.
- • A separate Senate crypto bill that would ban federal officials from issuing digital assets (CNBC, Jul 22) indicates parallel efforts that could align with the Clarity Act's goals.
- • The 24-hour odds increase of +3 points suggests recent procedural progress is being viewed as a positive signal by traders.
The case for NO
- • The core dispute over preventing presidents from selling coins (NYT, Jul 22) remains unresolved and could derail the bill in a divided Congress.
- • Critics argue the bill's changes still leave loopholes for presidential profit (Forbes, Jul 23), which may prevent the bipartisan consensus needed for passage.
- • The 7-day odds decline of -7 points reflects sustained pessimism, and the bill has not yet cleared a full House committee or received a floor vote.
What to watch
- • Full House Financial Services Committee markup or vote on the Clarity Act (likely in August 2026) — a positive vote would boost Yes odds.
- • Introduction or advancement of the Senate companion bill with a presidential ethics provision (CNBC, Jul 22) — if it gains traction, it could increase Yes odds by resolving the key dispute.
- • Any public statement from President Biden or a major party leader opposing the bill's current form — would likely push odds toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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