CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 39% chance — less likely than not.
Across venues
· updated 4mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Prediction markets collectively imply about a 38% chance the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026, with very close agreement across venues.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 39% right now.
The CLARITY Act is stuck in the Senate after House passage, with odds at 36% reflecting a mix of bipartisan urgency and procedural gridlock; the real story is whether the missed GENIUS Act deadline and growing compliance pressure can overcome partisan delays before the session ends.
📊 Base rate: Major technology or financial regulatory bills in the U.S. have roughly a 40-50% chance of enactment in a given Congress when they pass one chamber, based on historical data from GovTrack.
What's driving it
- • The bill stalled in the Senate after House approval (Crypto Briefing, Jul 18), pushing odds down as procedural hurdles remain.
- • US agencies missed the GENIUS Act deadline for stablecoin rules (TradingView, Jul 19), increasing pressure for legislative clarity but also highlighting regulatory fragmentation.
- • Senator touted three key benefits for developers and markets (Cryptonews.net, Jul 19), reinforcing the bill's appeal but not breaking the logjam.
- • Novogratz urged bipartisan Senate action as the bill nears finalization (Crypto Briefing, Jul 19), signaling optimism but no concrete vote schedule.
The case for YES
- • The Fortune op-ed (Jul 16) frames the bill as the most important tech law since the Telecoms Act, suggesting high-level political will to pass it before year-end.
- • The missed GENIUS Act deadline (TradingView, Jul 19) creates a regulatory vacuum that only the CLARITY Act can fill, incentivizing lawmakers to act.
- • Bipartisan support in the House and public calls from industry figures like Novogratz (Crypto Briefing, Jul 19) indicate enough cross-aisle momentum to overcome a filibuster.
The case for NO
- • The bill stalled in the Senate after House approval (Crypto Briefing, Jul 18), with no clear path to a floor vote amid competing priorities.
- • Forbes (Jul 16) warns the delay has become a compliance problem, implying that time is running out and political will may wane.
- • The GENIUS Act deadline miss (TradingView, Jul 19) shows agencies are moving independently, reducing the urgency for Congress to pass the CLARITY Act.
What to watch
- • Senate Banking Committee markup or vote announcement in August 2026 would likely push odds up (toward Yes) if scheduled.
- • A public statement from Senate Majority Leader or Minority Leader opposing the bill would push odds down (toward No).
- • End of fiscal year (September 30, 2026) without a vote would decrease odds (toward No) as legislative window narrows.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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