Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool?

🗂 Part of event: Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday? →

89¢Yes

89% 21 pts all-time

Yes

89¢

12¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 89% chance — very likely.

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Across venues

· updated 2hPredictPal Consensus

89%blended Yes · 2 venuesHigh reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 87%–92%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

Kalshi

$11.9K vol92%

Polymarketshown aboveCheapest Yes

$5.4K vol87%

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 89% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 18, 2026 · 4mo

Total volume$5.5K

24h volume$865

Liquidity

Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Dec 18, 2026 (4mo)

Resolution criteria

Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Polymarket ↗