Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 35% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 35% right now.
The market heavily favors No because the current top model, Claude Fable 5, still appears far from 1580 and recent reports of a 'router problem' (Yellow.com, Jul 4) suggest its lead may be fragile, while challengers like GLM-5.2 are climbing but not closing the gap fast enough.
What's driving it
- • Claude Fable 5's coding score drop attributed to a router problem (Yellow.com, Jul 4) raises doubts about sustained progress toward 1580.
- • GLM-5.2 climbed to second place on the Code Arena frontend (Crypto Briefing, Jun 25), but it remains unclear if it can surpass Claude's lead, let alone reach 1580.
- • The 74% No odds reflect the market's view that no model has demonstrated a trajectory to hit 1580 within six months, especially with only one model (Claude) even close to the top.
The case for YES
- • Claude Fable 5 already leads by 98 points (Crypto Briefing, Jun 10); if the router problem is fixed, it could resume rapid gains toward 1580.
- • Chinese models like GLM-5.2 are rapidly improving (36Kr, May 26) and could leapfrog Claude with a breakthrough, potentially hitting 1580 by year-end.
- • The Arena leaderboard is dynamic; a new model release or major update before December could achieve the score, as seen with past jumps.
The case for NO
- • The gap to 1580 is likely several hundred points, and even the top model's recent drop (Yellow.com, Jul 4) suggests progress is not linear.
- • No headline indicates any model is on pace to reach 1580; the best evidence is a 98-point lead, which is far from the target.
- • The market's 74% No implies informed bettors see fundamental scaling challenges or diminishing returns in coding benchmarks.
What to watch
- • Next major model release from OpenAI or Anthropic (e.g., GPT-5 or Claude 5) – if announced with coding scores, could shift odds toward Yes if close to 1580.
- • Monthly Arena leaderboard updates (arena.ai) – any model crossing a milestone like 1500 would increase Yes probability.
- • Publication of a new coding benchmark or style-control change that resets scores – could either help or hinder, but likely direction is uncertain.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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