US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
🗂 Part of event: US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 13% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 13% right now.
The market heavily favors No because Iran has repeatedly rejected handing over enriched uranium and is pursuing a transfer to China, making US possession unlikely without a dramatic reversal.
What's driving it
- • Iran explicitly rejected US demands to hand over enriched uranium, citing distrust (Crypto Briefing, May 22 and May 15).
- • Iran plans to transfer uranium to China, which would remove it from US reach (Crypto Briefing, May 29).
- • President Trump vowed to retrieve the uranium but rejected sanctions relief (May 27), reducing diplomatic leverage.
The case for YES
- • Trump's vow to 'get' the uranium (Yahoo Finance, May 21) signals potential unilateral US action, possibly through military seizure.
- • The US has a history of covert operations to secure nuclear materials, and a direct order from Trump could trigger such an operation.
- • If Iran's transfer to China is blocked or delayed, the US might seize the uranium during transit.
The case for NO
- • Iran has repeatedly and publicly rejected any transfer to the US, and distrust is deep (Crypto Briefing, May 15, May 22).
- • Iran's plan to send uranium to China (May 29) provides an alternative destination, making US possession less likely.
- • Trump's refusal to offer sanctions relief (May 27) removes a key incentive for Iran to cooperate.
What to watch
- • Any announcement of a new US-Iran negotiation round (direction: Yes if talks resume, No if they collapse).
- • Reports of US military or intelligence operations near Iranian nuclear sites (direction: Yes).
- • Confirmation of uranium shipment to China (direction: No).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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