NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
🗂 Part of event: NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote) →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 47% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 47% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election. This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election. Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.