Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
🗂 Part of event: Crude Oil all time high by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
The market heavily favors 'No' because the all-time high of $147.27 is nearly double current prices, and while recent geopolitical tensions have pushed oil up 4%, they haven't created a sustained rally strong enough to close that gap by September 30.
📊 Base rate: Since 1983, crude oil has reached a new all-time high in any given 3-month window only about 2% of the time, making the current 7% 'Yes' odds slightly elevated relative to historical frequency.
What's driving it
- • The 24-hour drop of 2 points in 'Yes' probability likely reflects fading optimism from the July 13 US-Iran tensions, as the 4% price spike (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) has not been followed by further escalation or supply disruptions.
- • Rising US crude inventories by 2.998M barrels (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) defied market expectations and suggest ample supply, countering the bullish narrative from Middle East tensions.
- • China’s crude import rebound (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) provides some demand-side support, but the simultaneous rise in Middle East supplies (same headline) limits upward price pressure.
The case for YES
- • A major escalation of the US-Iran conflict—such as a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—could spike prices sharply, as seen in the 4% jump from military strikes (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13).
- • El Niño-driven food and energy price concerns (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) could compound supply fears, potentially pushing crude toward the $147.27 threshold if combined with a supply shock.
- • The active month contract’s roll dynamics (front-month expiration) could amplify a short-term price surge if a geopolitical event occurs near a settlement date.
The case for NO
- • The $147.27 all-time high is roughly double current prices (around $75-80), requiring an unprecedented 80%+ rally in just over two months—historically implausible without a massive supply crisis.
- • Rising US inventories (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) and increased Middle East supplies (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) indicate the market is well-supplied, reducing the likelihood of a sustained spike.
- • The 2-point drop in 'Yes' odds over 24 hours shows traders are pricing out the risk from recent Iran tensions, suggesting the market views the current geopolitical premium as temporary.
What to watch
- • August 2026 OPEC+ meeting (expected late August): If the group announces deeper production cuts, it could boost 'Yes' odds; if they maintain or increase output, it strengthens 'No'.
- • Any new US-Iran military engagement or diplomatic breakthrough (ongoing): A new strike or blockade would spike 'Yes' odds; a ceasefire or deal would crush them.
- • Weekly EIA crude inventory reports (every Wednesday): A surprise draw of over 5M barrels would lift 'Yes' odds; a large build would push them lower.
Sources
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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