Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
🗂 Part of event: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 56% chance — more likely than not.
Across venues
· updated 2mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply a 55% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by December 31, with a narrow 3-point spread between venues, likely due to slight differences in trader pools or liquidity.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 56% right now.
The market is pricing a near-coinflip on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by year-end, but the 7-day downward drift and recent headlines suggest traders are increasingly skeptical that a sustained recovery can occur before 2027.
📊 Base rate: Since 2018, the Strait of Hormuz has experienced several multi-month disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, with traffic typically taking 3-6 months to recover after a major incident, making a return to normal within five months of a sharp drop historically unlikely.
What's driving it
- • Iran's seizure of a Greek tanker on July 22 (Crypto Briefing) directly reduces the count of transiting vessels and signals continued risk for commercial shipping.
- • Headlines on July 20 reported a sharp drop in tanker traffic as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated (SANA), which is the immediate catalyst for the 7-day -6pt move.
- • A July 8 CNBC report noted that traders on another platform predict traffic won't return to normal until 2027, reinforcing a bearish narrative that has persisted for weeks.
- • The 24-hour -2pt move likely reflects the market absorbing the July 22 tanker seizure news, which adds a fresh negative data point.
The case for YES
- • If the U.S. and Iran de-escalate quickly, shipping companies could resume normal schedules within weeks, potentially pushing the 7-day moving average above 60 by late summer.
- • The resolution threshold of 60 transit calls is relatively low compared to pre-crisis levels (often above 80), so a modest recovery in traffic could trigger a Yes outcome.
- • IMF Portwatch data may show a temporary spike from delayed vessels arriving in a cluster, which could briefly push the average above 60 even if the overall trend is weak.
The case for NO
- • The seizure of a Greek tanker on July 22 (Crypto Briefing) and Iran's reaffirmation of sovereignty on July 20 (Crypto Briefing) indicate that tensions are escalating, not easing, making a sustained recovery unlikely.
- • The 7-day moving average is currently well below 60, and with traffic dropping sharply as of July 20 (SANA), it would require a rapid and sustained reversal to hit the threshold by year-end.
- • A CNBC report from July 8 already predicted no return to normal until 2027, and subsequent events have only worsened the situation, suggesting the market's bearish view is well-founded.
What to watch
- • Any new diplomatic talks or agreements between the U.S. and Iran in August or September would likely push odds up (Yes direction), as de-escalation could restore shipping confidence.
- • A further tanker seizure or military incident in the Strait in the coming weeks would push odds down (No direction), reinforcing the current negative trend.
- • The release of IMF Portwatch data in early August showing the actual 7-day moving average will either confirm the drop or show a surprise recovery, directly moving the market.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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