Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
The market is pricing near-zero probability because Iran has repeatedly refused to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, and the US demand for full surrender as a deal precondition (Kyiv Post, Jul 11) is a red line Iran has not crossed, making a voluntary handover by July 31 extremely unlikely.
📊 Base rate: In nuclear nonproliferation history, no state with a significant indigenous enrichment program has ever voluntarily surrendered its entire stockpile under a short deadline without a comprehensive security guarantee or regime change.
What's driving it
- • A senior Iranian source told Reuters on May 24 that Iran has not agreed to hand over highly enriched uranium, directly contradicting the premise of the market.
- • The US demand for full surrender as a condition for any nuclear deal (Kyiv Post, Jul 11) sets a maximalist position that Iran has publicly rejected, as Fortune reported on Jun 15 that Iran says it won't give up its uranium.
- • Netanyahu's warning on Jul 8 about Iran's chemical weapons suggests ongoing distrust and no breakthrough in nuclear talks, reinforcing the status quo.
The case for YES
- • The Time Magazine report on Jun 19 described a 60-day test period under an agreement, implying some Iranian flexibility that could theoretically extend to a partial stockpile surrender by July 31.
- • The BBC reported on Jun 15 that Trump aims to end the Iran war, which could create last-minute diplomatic pressure for a symbolic surrender of a small portion of the stockpile to avoid escalation.
- • The market's resolution is broad: any public agreement to surrender 'any amount' of enriched uranium qualifies, so even a token transfer of a few kilograms could trigger a Yes.
The case for NO
- • Iran's consistent public refusal to hand over its stockpile, as confirmed by a senior Iranian source to Reuters on May 24, makes a voluntary surrender within days extremely improbable.
- • The US demand for full surrender (Kyiv Post, Jul 11) is a maximalist condition that Iran has no incentive to accept, and no recent headline suggests a compromise has been reached.
- • No credible report of a breakthrough has emerged since the Jun 15 Fortune article highlighting the fundamental disagreement, and the July 31 deadline is only days away with no deal in sight.
What to watch
- • Any official statement from Iran's Supreme Leader or Foreign Ministry between now and July 31 explicitly rejecting surrender would further cement the No outcome.
- • A surprise announcement of a last-minute US-Iran meeting or a leaked draft agreement mentioning stockpile transfer could briefly spike Yes odds, though the market's current 1% suggests extreme skepticism.
- • The July 31 deadline itself is a catalyst: if no agreement is announced by that date, the market resolves No automatically.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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