Screwworm National Emergency declared by October 31?
🗂 Part of event: Screwworm National Emergency declared by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 42% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 42% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
When will Starship flight 14 happen?
The field is extremely front-loaded: the top candidate (before 2027-04-01) commands 95% odds, and all ten candidates above 5% stack into the next nine months, reflecting a market consensus that Flight 14 is imminent but not immediate. The largest recent shift is the collapse of near-term dates after the July 17 abort, when the 'before 2026-10-01' candidate dropped from ~80% to 71% following a second launch abort.
11 outcomes
Apple Announces AI Glasses by September 30, 2026
2 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
The field is extremely concentrated on 'any model announced before 2034' at 88%, but the long tail of 22 candidates above 5% suggests bettors see many plausible paths to a 1900-rated human being beaten by a future LLM, with the single biggest recent shift being the 2025-08-15 Business Insider report that OpenAI's o3 swept a chess tournament against xAI's Grok 4, likely boosting confidence in near-term AI chess ability.
52 outcomes