Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
The market is pricing an almost zero chance of a formal Iranian withdrawal announcement, despite Tehran's repeated declarations that the MOU is dead, because those statements have not constituted a definitive termination of the negotiation process called for by the market criteria.
📊 Base rate: In similar post-conflict negotiation frameworks, formal withdrawal announcements are rare—typically occurring in less than 10% of cases—and usually happen only after a clear breakdown of talks, not during the initial 60-day window.
What's driving it
- • Iran's July 13 declaration that the US-Iran MOU is dead (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) has not been accompanied by the specific official announcement of termination of negotiations required by the market, keeping the 'Yes' probability low.
- • The 15-point drop in the last 7 days (July 18-25) suggests traders see Iran's halting of MOU commitments (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) as a bluff or lever, not a prelude to a formal exit.
- • US warnings on July 12 about Iran not fulfilling MOU commitments (Crypto Briefing, Jul 12) indicate ongoing engagement, making a sudden withdrawal announcement less likely.
- • Trump's July 8 reference to 'denuclearization' (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) may have been interpreted as a sign that the US remains committed to talks, reducing the chance of Iran walking away.
The case for YES
- • Iran has already declared the MOU 'dead' (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) and could formalize that by issuing a termination announcement before July 31 to consolidate a hardline domestic stance.
- • The July 14 report of Iranian nationalism complicating talks (Crypto Briefing, Jul 14) suggests domestic pressure could push the government to make a dramatic exit.
- • Baghaei's closure of the MOU five days before Khamenei spoke (houseofsaud.com, Jul 19) implies a pattern of unilateral action that could culminate in a formal withdrawal by the deadline.
The case for NO
- • Iran's halting of MOU commitments (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13) is a negotiating tactic, not a final break, and the market sees no incentive to formally leave the 60-day framework while talks are still possible.
- • The 97% probability reflects a consensus that the July 31 deadline is too soon after Iran's own hardline rhetoric; a formal withdrawal would burn bridges, which Iran has avoided so far.
- • No headline has reported any official statement explicitly terminating the negotiation process, only criticisms of US non-compliance, suggesting the market discounts an imminent announcement.
What to watch
- • Any official statement from Iran's Supreme Leader or Foreign Ministry explicitly using the term 'withdrawal' from negotiations would push the 'Yes' probability sharply upward before July 31.
- • A new US military action or further sanctions on Iran could trigger a retaliatory announcement of withdrawal, increasing 'Yes' odds.
- • If the July 31 deadline passes without an announcement, the market will resolve to 'No', reinforcing the current extreme probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A temporary suspension, pause, or adjournment of negotiations, however open-ended or indefinite, does not constitute a termination unless it is itself clearly and unambiguously framed as a definitive end to participation. A conditional withdrawal, in which Iran announces it is ending participation subject to or contingent on any future event or condition, does not constitute termination. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the Iranian government's present termination of participation in the negotiation process, previously-unannounced prior termination of participation in the negotiation process, or definitive decision to terminate participation in the negotiation process. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify Iran's termination of participation in the negotiation process. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such termination, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the MOU or the negotiation process by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of termination of the negotiation process is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the Iranian government will announce or terminate participation in negotiations; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional termination rather than announcing a present and decided position; - Walkouts, boycotts, or refusals to attend a specific meeting that do not clearly announce a termination of the overall negotiation process; and - Indirect communications through mediators that do not constitute a direct official announcement from Iran. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether Iran actually ceases participation in negotiations. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, or the official representatives of the Iranian government.
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