Will Jason Segel – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?

🗂 Part of event: Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series →

4¢Yes

4% 41 pts all-time

Yes

4¢

96¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 4% chance — almost no chance.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 4% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesSep 14, 2026 · 1mo

Total volume$170

Liquidity

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How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Sep 14, 2026 (1mo)

Resolution criteria

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

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