Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?
🗂 Part of event: Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 55% chance — more likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 55% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
Colorado Initiative 109 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would restrict certain school and college sports based on an individual's biological sex. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Colorado statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Colorado, including the Colorado Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.co.us/).
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Fed Decision in July?
The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on 'No change' at 80%, with a 24-hour +1pt drift, but the recent MarketWatch headline reveals deliberate Fed communication opacity—Chair Warsh is keeping markets in the dark, which paradoxically reinforces the no-change baseline as the safe anchor while leaving room for a surprise 25bps hike (19%) if incoming data forces clarity. The single biggest recent shift is the slight uptick in 'No change' odds, likely reflecting traders pricing in the Fed's strategic ambiguity as a signal of no urgent action.
5 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.
2 outcomes
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
The field is moderately fragmented (top three at 47%) but the biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary (Axios, Jul 25), which could benefit candidates with strong appeal to Black voters or early-state organizing chops.
46 outcomes
2028 Presidential Election Winner
The field is unusually fragmented with no candidate above 18%, and the top three sum to just 41%, reflecting a wide-open race where the biggest recent shift is the absence of a clear front-runner despite ongoing midterm elections and controversies over election integrity. The 2026 primary results (NBC News, Jul 23) are reshaping candidate viability, but no single contender has consolidated support yet.
40 outcomes