Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Anthropic removes paid plan access for Fable 5 by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic removes access to "Claude Fable 5" from qualifying paid plans by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying removal requires Fable 5 to no longer be included within standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on all of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. Moving Fable 5 to usage-credit-only access on all paid plans will qualify. Removing included access only from some of these plans will not qualify. Access through the Enterprise plan will not be considered. Announcements alone will not qualify. Qualifying paid-plan access must actually be removed by the listed date. The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as Fable 5 remains available within the included allowance. Reducing the percentage cap, without fully removing included access, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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