Will Company A have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of July? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 50% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 50% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Text-to-Image Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image) when the table under "Text-to-Image Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Image Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image (Overall) will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Text-to-Image Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-image. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Apple Announces AI Glasses by September 30, 2026
2 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
The field is extremely concentrated on 'any model announced before 2034' at 88%, but the long tail of 22 candidates above 5% suggests bettors see many plausible paths to a 1900-rated human being beaten by a future LLM, with the single biggest recent shift being the 2025-08-15 Business Insider report that OpenAI's o3 swept a chess tournament against xAI's Grok 4, likely boosting confidence in near-term AI chess ability.
52 outcomes