Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
🗂 Part of event: Iran full airspace closure by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 24% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 24% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets
DOGE Up or Down - Daily
The 62% odds for DOGE going up on this daily market reflect a tug-of-war between a bullish political narrative around Trump's federal overhaul and persistent bearish crypto price action, with the most recent price move being a down day.
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
The market prices just a 2% chance that Los Angeles saw exactly 81°F on July 25, 2026—a reflection of both the inherent rarity of any specific integer temperature and the context of an unusually hot spring that tilted the distribution upward.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
The contract for LAX on July 25, 2026, has effectively already resolved to No, with odds at 2% reflecting the observed high temperature below 81°F. The earlier heatwave headlines (March–April) do not directly explain this outcome, as the specific day did not meet the threshold.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
This market is effectively resolved: the event date (July 25, 2026) has passed, and the overwhelming 98% No odds indicate that actual temperature readings have already shown the high was not exactly 81°F, with final confirmation likely the only remaining step.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before GTA 6 releases?
This market pits a low-probability geopolitical event against an uncertain video game release, with odds heavily favoring No because China has not invaded Taiwan despite decades of rhetoric and any invasion would be a massive escalation unlikely before GTA 6's expected release within a few years.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The market is pricing a 71% chance SUI ends the day up, driven by a recent price hold above $0.70 and surging transaction volume, but this optimism ignores two major network outages in recent months that could undermine confidence at any moment.
Yes ≈ 72% chance