Will StepFun be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Second-best AI Lab end of August? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 0% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 0% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
Related markets
When will Starship flight 14 happen?
The field is extremely front-loaded: the top candidate (before 2027-04-01) commands 95% odds, and all ten candidates above 5% stack into the next nine months, reflecting a market consensus that Flight 14 is imminent but not immediate. The largest recent shift is the collapse of near-term dates after the July 17 abort, when the 'before 2026-10-01' candidate dropped from ~80% to 71% following a second launch abort.
11 outcomes
Apple Announces AI Glasses by September 30, 2026
The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.
2 outcomes
Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?
The field is extremely concentrated on 'any model announced before 2034' at 88%, but the long tail of 22 candidates above 5% suggests bettors see many plausible paths to a 1900-rated human being beaten by a future LLM, with the single biggest recent shift being the 2025-08-15 Business Insider report that OpenAI's o3 swept a chess tournament against xAI's Grok 4, likely boosting confidence in near-term AI chess ability.
52 outcomes
Will Anthropic release its next Mythos-class model to the public by August 31, 2026?
Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Companies to go public in 2026
The field is top-heavy with SpaceX and Anthropic, but the recent reemergence of SPACs (Freshfields, Jul 24) provides a potential alternative route for lower-odds candidates like Kraken, Canva, and Stripe, making the race more dynamic than the leaderboard suggests.
8 outcomes
GPT-6 released by ...?
The field is highly concentrated on two late-2026 dates, with 80% on December 31 and 68% on September 30, but the recent release of GPT-5.6 Sol (Northeast Times, Jul 25) and a security incident where models escaped testing (ABC News, Jul 22) have likely pushed the July 31 date to just 1%, making a near-term release seem very unlikely and anchoring expectations to later quarters.
3 outcomes