Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

Yes ≈ 97% chance

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.

✨ Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.

Yes ≈ 46% chance

✨ The field is highly concentrated on the near-term horizon, with the top three candidates all betting on a model announced before 2034, 2033, or 2032, collectively summing to 251% — but the real story is the steep drop-off after 2030, suggesting traders see a narrow window for a breakthrough, not a long march.

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with two strong leaders—SpaceX and Anthropic—but a long tail of eight candidates above 5% makes it less a binary race than a bet on whether the two favorites both IPO or only one. The biggest recent shift is the emergence of congressional insider trading reports around SpaceX (CNBC, Jul 3), which may have boosted confidence that the IPO is real and imminent.