Will Circle Internet Group (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?
🗂 Part of event: Will Circle Internet Group (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 75% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 75% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
As of market creation, Circle Internet Group is estimated to release earnings on August 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Circle Internet Group's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.16 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Circle Internet Group reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.16 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Circle Internet Group releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Related markets
Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
The market is nearly evenly split between a crash to $55 and a surge to $120, but the small recent shift toward the dump scenario reflects that near-term demand weakness and infrastructure investment are outweighing supply disruption risks for now.
2 outcomes
GOLD Price: Pump to $4.900 or Dump to $3.700?
Despite safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict, gold is trading below $4,000 and facing a bearish 'death cross' technical pattern, pushing the market strongly toward a dump to $3,700 (71% odds) rather than a pump to $4,900.
2 outcomes
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
The field is highly concentrated on Nvidia, but the sum of top-three odds exceeding 100% reflects overlapping bets rather than certainty, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of SpaceX as a speculative contender, as highlighted by Benzinga on June 16, which could fragment the race if its valuation narrative gains traction.
7 outcomes
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
The field is highly concentrated on a hold, but the recent surge in oil prices near $100 (The Business Times, Jul 26) has injected fresh inflation fears, making a hike more plausible than the 78% hold odds suggest, while the Fed chair's deliberate opacity (MarketWatch, Jul 25) keeps the market guessing.
5 outcomes
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
The field is heavily concentrated on a rate hold at 76%, yet the 22% chance of a hike indicates genuine uncertainty, driven by the Fed chair's ambiguous signals and mixed global inflation data that could still tip the decision either way.
4 outcomes