US recession by end of 2026?
🗂 Part of event: US recession by end of 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.
Despite earlier fears of stagflation (CNBC, May 14), the market now sees only a 12% chance of a US recession by end of 2026, likely because the first year of the window (mid-2025 to mid-2026) has passed without two consecutive negative GDP quarters, leaving only the remaining months for a downturn to begin.
📊 Base rate: Since 1945, the US has experienced a recession in about 14% of calendar years, but the remaining window of only five months makes the historical prior for a new recession starting by end-2026 lower than that.
What's driving it
- • The 7-day decline of 4 points likely reflects the absence of any negative GDP prints for the first four quarters in the window (Q2 2025 through Q1 2026), which would have triggered a resolution if they had occurred.
- • A May CNBC survey showed traders assigning nearly 40% odds of stagflation by end of 2026, but the current 12% recession odds suggest that either growth has held up or stagflation fears have receded.
- • The 'Big Four Recession Indicators' article (Advisor Perspectives, Jul 2) may have reinforced that key metrics like payrolls and industrial production remain above recession thresholds.
The case for YES
- • If the Q2 2026 advance GDP estimate (due imminently) shows a contraction, and Q1 2026 was already negative (revised or initial), that would meet the two-quarter rule and resolve Yes.
- • The NBER could retroactively declare a recession starting in early 2026 even if GDP data later shows a shallow dip, as the NBER uses a broader set of indicators.
- • Persistent stagflation signals from trader surveys (CNBC, May 14) could materialize into actual output declines if consumer spending falters in the second half of 2026.
The case for NO
- • No two consecutive negative GDP quarters have occurred through Q1 2026, and the economy has shown resilience, with AI-driven productivity gains potentially extending the expansion (Forbes, May 28).
- • The 'effort recession' phenomenon reported in India (NDTV, Jul 9) is not directly applicable to US GDP, and US-specific indicators like the Big Four remain positive.
- • With only five months left in the window, the probability of a new recession starting and being confirmed by two consecutive negative quarters or an NBER announcement is low, consistent with the 12% odds.
What to watch
- • Release of Q2 2026 advance GDP estimate (late July 2026) – a negative reading would sharply increase Yes odds, while a positive reading would reinforce No.
- • NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee meetings or statements – any hint of a recession call would spike Yes probability.
- • Federal Reserve policy decisions (e.g., September 2026 FOMC) – if the Fed signals concern about growth, it could raise recession fears and boost Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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