Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 49% chance — a coin toss.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 49% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI. An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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