2nd Largest Company end of July?
🗂 Part of event: 2nd Largest Company end of July? →💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Apple at about a 79% chance — likely.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
The field is highly concentrated on Nvidia, but the sum of top-three odds exceeding 100% reflects overlapping bets rather than certainty, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of SpaceX as a speculative contender, as highlighted by Benzinga on June 16, which could fragment the race if its valuation narrative gains traction.
7 outcomes
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
The field is heavily concentrated on a hold, with a 76% probability, reflecting a consensus that the Fed will pause after its June 2026 decision, but the 22% chance of a hike shows a non-trivial tail risk from persistent inflation concerns, as highlighted by UK inflation data (BBC, Jul 6) and the Fed's own dot plot (Bondsavvy, Jun 17).
4 outcomes
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
The market is heavily concentrated on zero cuts (72%), reflecting a clear consensus that the Fed under new Chair Warsh will hold rates steady through 2026. The recent Fed minutes (Jul 8) revealing 'inflation concerns grew' and a 'family fight' over rates have solidified the no-cut view, pushing the one-cut option below 25%.
7 outcomes
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
The market is extremely concentrated on zero cuts (85%), reflecting a consensus that the Fed will not ease in 2026, but the recent shift is a sharp move away from any cut probability after Fed Chair Warsh explicitly ruled out immediate cuts (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23) and a Reuters poll showed economists see higher chances of a hike (Reuters, Jul 21).
2 outcomes