Winner of the F1 Hungarian Grand Prix 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: ANY OTHER DRIVER at about a 65% chance — likely.
The field is heavily tilted toward 'any other driver' at 65%, a catch-all for anyone not named Norris or Verstappen, after Hamilton and Antonelli received grid penalties (Times Union, Jul 25), making the race unusually wide open despite Norris claiming pole.
What's driving it
- • ANY OTHER DRIVER odds increased 2 points in 24h as Hamilton and Antonelli penalties removed two top contenders (Times Union, Jul 25).
- • Norris odds stayed at 35% even after taking pole, suggesting the market discounts his chances due to the penalties opening the door for other drivers like Leclerc (Reuters, Jul 24) or others.
Why the front-runners lead
- • ANY OTHER DRIVER leads because grid penalties to Ferrari's Hamilton and Antonelli thin the field of named heavy favorites (Times Union, Jul 25).
- • Norris is second at 35% based on his pole position, which historically offers a high win probability at the Hungarian Grand Prix, though not absolute.
Why it's still open
- • The field remains open if Norris converts his pole into a win, overcoming the 'any other driver' bloc; his McLaren has shown strong pace (Al Jazeera, Jul 25).
- • Max Verstappen at 13% could mount a charge from further back on the grid, as Red Bull has strong race pace.
- • Other drivers like Leclerc, who led practice in a Ferrari one-two (Reuters, Jul 24), could win if they avoid the penalties that hit his teammate Hamilton.
What to watch
- • The race start later today (July 25) will resolve the market; a fast start by Norris could shrink 'any other driver' odds.
- • Any last-minute weather changes or pre-race technical issues could shift odds toward drivers with wet-weather prowess or reliability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from XO Market’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on XO Market ↗Related markets
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