Economics prediction markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
5,765 markets · page 10 of 241
Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
5,765 markets · page 10 of 241
Yes ≈ 58% chance
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 84% chance
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Yes ≈ 32% chance
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 94% chance
Despite a massive Q2 delivery beat that sent Tesla stock surging above $420, the market sees stock price at 3.3x current levels by end of 2027 as very unlikely, suggesting the Ark bear case is priced as a tail event dependent on a perfect execution and macro tailwinds.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 80% chance