Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
229 markets · page 1 of 10
29 outcomes
The market dismisses a 2026 US recession as highly unlikely (10% Yes), betting that a strong labor market and the deflationary promise of AI will overpower the historical pattern where credit booms ended in downturns.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
The field is extremely concentrated, with NVIDIA at 82% and Apple at 18%, leaving no other candidate above 5% — a near two-horse race. The single biggest recent shift is NVIDIA's dominance, which appears to be sustained by its position as the largest technology company by market cap in July 2026 (The Motley Fool, Jul 7), with no clear catalyst for a sudden reversal.
8 outcomes
The race for second-largest company is a two-horse contest between Apple and NVIDIA, with a combined 94% probability, driven by the semiconductor supply chain strength highlighted by TSMC's massive Arizona investment and profit surge, while Alphabet trails at 6% with no clear catalyst for a leap.
8 outcomes
5 outcomes
9 outcomes
8 outcomes
Yes ≈ 75% chance
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 81% chance