Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
5,779 markets · page 15 of 241
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Yes ≈ 78% chance
Yes ≈ 82% chance
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Anduril's latest $100B funding round signals strong private-market demand, but the company has consistently prioritized staying private, making an IPO before 2027 unlikely despite the valuation surge.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 81% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 73% chance
Yes ≈ 66% chance
The field is highly concentrated on a single name, SpaceX, but that dominance rests on a post-IPO Starship launch narrative rather than a clear market-cap gap, and the real wildcard is an unlisted Chinese memory-chip maker whose Shanghai debut could surpass all three current leaders in IPO-day value.
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 88% chance
Yes ≈ 73% chance
79 outcomes