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Economics prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Economics prediction markets

Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.

🔭 Compare economics odds across venues →

All Markets & equities 723 Growth & recession 286 Inflation 178 Monetary policy 106 Largest Companies 87 Jobs & labor 61 Gasoline Prices 42 Bitcoin Price Levels 15 Currency Exchange Rates 14 Headline 8 Gold Price Levels 7 Fiscal & trade 6

243 markets · page 5 of 11

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.25%

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$10.8K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…34567…11Next ›

Open

What's the risk-free interest rate until 2028 on Manifold Markets?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$19.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.50%

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

$4.4K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$3.8K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.50%

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$21.7K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$2.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 2.75%

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$16.2K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Polymarket

Open

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$122K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.75%

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

$2.4K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Number of Fed rate changes before 2027

Exactly 038¢

13 outcomes

$35.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.25%

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$5.9K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Polymarket

Open

Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair

Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5%93¢

9 outcomes

$159K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

Fed maintains rate57¢

5 outcomes

$51.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?

No Change56¢

3 outcomes

$19.8K Vol▲ 1pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.75%

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

$51.8K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

South African Reserve Bank Decision in September?

No Change50¢

3 outcomes

▲ 5pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 5.00%

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$908 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting? — Above 3.25%

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$4.7K Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bps? — At least 10bps

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

$241 Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 12bps? — At least 12bps

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$213 Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 15bps? — At least 15bps

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$395 Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 18bps? — At least 18bps

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$605 Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 20bps? — At least 20bps

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$110 Vol▲ 0pts3d