Economics prediction markets
Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
211 markets · page 6 of 9
Will average **gas prices** be above $3.70? — Above 3.70
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
211 markets · page 6 of 9
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Yes ≈ 49% chance
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Yes ≈ 50% chance
With the national average gas price already above $4 per gallon as of late July 2026, the $2.60 threshold is so far below current levels that the market is essentially pricing in certain resolution to Yes, barring an unprecedented and immediate crash.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Gas prices are already averaging above $4 per gallon nationwide, making the $2.70 threshold virtually certain to be exceeded on the resolution date just nine days away.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
The odds are heavily skewed toward Yes because the threshold of $2.80 is far below current national averages around $4, making a drop of more than $1.20 in nine days extremely unlikely.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
With US national gas prices already averaging above $4 per gallon as of July 20-22, and Middle East instability showing no signs of abating, the $3.40 threshold for July 31 is so far below current levels that a precipitous drop in nine days is nearly impossible, making the 99% odds a reflection of the low bar rather than any uncertainty.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
The market is essentially a foregone conclusion: national gas prices are already above $4, well past the $3.80 threshold, with only six days until resolution and no signs of a sudden collapse.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance