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Economics prediction markets & live odds — page 7 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Economics prediction markets

Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.

🔭 Compare economics odds across venues →

All Markets & equities 727 Growth & recession 286 Inflation 180 Monetary policy 107 Largest Companies 90 Jobs & labor 62 Gasoline Prices 43 Bitcoin Price Levels 15 Currency Exchange Rates 14 Gold Price Levels 8 Headline 8 Fiscal & trade 6

244 markets · page 7 of 11

Kalshi

Open

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? — Above 4.0%

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

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What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? — Above 4.1%

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? — Above 4.2%

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$101 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? — Above 4.3%

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

What will the median be in the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 dot plot? — Above 4.4%

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

In September 2026

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$5.1K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.75%

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

$17.6K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.50%

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$866 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.75%

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$350 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting? — Above 5.25%

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$940 Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 2.75%

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$127K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.00%

The market is pricing a near-certain hold above 3.00% because the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is seen as hawkish and a key inflation metric just hit 4.1%, but the real story is that the bond market itself is already hiking rates, making a cut extremely unlikely before the July meeting.

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$71.4K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.25%

The market is pricing near-certainty that the Fed will keep its upper bound above 3.25% at the July 29 meeting, reflecting a sharp reversal from earlier easing expectations as inflation reaccelerates and a new hawkish chair takes over.

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$94.8K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.50%

Despite recent headlines flagging sticky inflation at 4.1% and the Fed signaling possible rate hikes, the market assigns only a 1% chance that the upper bound of the federal funds rate will exceed 4.50% after the July 29 meeting, suggesting traders expect a hold or a cut rather than a hike.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$9.8K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 5.00%

The market is pricing a near-zero chance of rates above 5% after the July 2026 meeting, but recent inflation data and a hawkish new Fed chair suggest the easing cycle may have stalled, making the 1% odds a potential mispricing of tail risk.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$2.8K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.25% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting? — Above 5.25%

The market is pricing a near-zero chance of a rate hike above 5.25% in July, reflecting a strong consensus that the Fed's easing cycle—already underway with cuts—will continue, despite sticky inflation and a new hawkish chair.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$3K Vol▲ 0pts3d

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 2.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 2.75%

Yes97¢

No3¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$1.5K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.00%

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

$1.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 3.25%

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

$4.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.00%

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.25%

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$671 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.50% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.50%

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$902 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.75% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 4.75%

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting? — Above 5.00%

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$352 Vol▲ 0pts3mo