Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
235 markets · page 2 of 10
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? — 1495+
Odds have surged 23 points in 24 hours despite all recent Arena activity exclusively involving ineligible Flash models (TestingCatalog, Geeky Gadgets, May 2026), suggesting the market is pricing in an imminent Pro release that has not yet been signaled.
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
The 13-point surge in Yes odds over 24 hours likely reflects renewed hopes from OpenAI's July 8 announcement of a delayed rollout for its most capable GPT model, but the market's persistent 61% No suggests skepticism that any public launch will meet the August 31 deadline.
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
32 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? — 1510+
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? — 1500+
Yes ≈ 42% chance
Which company has #1 AI model end of August? (Style Control On)
32 outcomes
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?
The field is extremely concentrated, with Anthropic at 96% and all other candidates below 2%, making this effectively a one-horse race unless a major upset occurs. The single biggest recent shift is the absence of any recent headlines directly addressing the Text Arena Math leaderboard, leaving the odds driven by prior reputation rather than fresh competitive moves.
26 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? — 1480+
Yes ≈ 72% chance
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+
Yes ≈ 87% chance
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? — 1500+
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Will Waymo launch in Portland, OR by December 31 2026?
Waymo's mapping in Portland (Portland Monthly, Jul 23) is a concrete step, but odds have dropped 6 points in a week as the city weighs robotaxi rules (KATU, Jul 17), suggesting traders see regulatory hurdles as the bigger near-term barrier than operational readiness.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+
Yes ≈ 67% chance
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of September?
34 outcomes
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Which company has second best AI model end of July?
The field is extremely concentrated on Anthropic at 97%, with the single biggest recent shift likely being the market's reaction to the AI industry's pivot toward cheaper, smarter systems (CNBC, Jul 10) and Google's potential data setback from a Reddit deal non-renewal (CNBC, Jul 22), which together reinforce Anthropic's lead for second place.
26 outcomes