Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
75 markets · page 2 of 4
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 115 mph? — ≥115 mph
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? — ↑5k
The low 17% odds for 5,000+ measles cases reflect a counterintuitive global outbreak context: as outbreaks rage internationally and slip across borders, the U.S. has so far contained them to isolated clusters, making the 5,000-case threshold a steep hurdle after decades of near-elimination.
Yes ≈ 16% chance
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
The market's slight uptick to 55% despite recent launch scrubs and a stock slide suggests traders are betting on an eventual reusability announcement rather than immediate technical success, with the key test flight this week as the near-term catalyst.
Yes ≈ 61% chance
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30?
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 110 mph? — ≥110 mph
Yes ≈ 6% chance
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Despite intense earthquake activity and a major disaster in Venezuela in July 2026, the market firmly dismisses a magnitude 10.0 event—two full points above the largest ever recorded—as nearly impossible. The real story is that severe quakes verify nothing about the odds of a physically implausible magnitude.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Screwworm National Emergency declared by August 30?
Yes ≈ 50% chance
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
The field is heavily concentrated on the 14–16 range at 47%, but the recent Venezuela disaster (NBC News, Jun 28) has not shifted odds upward as one might expect, suggesting the market already priced in a high baseline from 2025's above-average activity (Alaska's News Source, Apr 26). The biggest recent shift is the lack of movement toward higher counts despite a deadly quake, indicating the market views it as a single event within normal annual variation. The 17–19 range at 27% remains a credible alternative if aftershocks or other regions activate. The field is not open to extreme outcomes: 8–10 and below are negligible, and 20+ at 9% is a long shot. The key non-obvious read is that the Venezuela quake may have actually reinforced the 14–16 bucket by confirming a major event without triggering a cascade of additional large quakes elsewhere.
7 outcomes
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
The market heavily favors no major quake, but the recent silence of the San Andreas fault and deadly mid-range quakes elsewhere keep a tail risk alive for a rare magnitude 9.0+ event before 2027.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Despite a historical average of ~1 VEI 4+ eruption per year, the market heavily favors zero (63%) because no such eruption has been recorded in the first 57% of 2026, making a single late-year eruption the only plausible challenger.
6 outcomes
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
The market assigns a 4% chance to a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, closely tracking the historical base rate. Recent headlines discuss past eruptions or general volcano dangers but contain no credible signs of an imminent giant eruption, explaining the low and slightly declining odds.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
Despite ongoing speculation about SpaceX IPO and Dogecoin catalysts, the DOGE-1 moon mission was rescheduled in June 2026 with no new date, keeping the probability of a launch by year-end very low at 12%.
Yes ≈ 12% chance