Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
1,022 markets · page 14 of 43
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Yes ≈ 50% chance
11 outcomes
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
4 outcomes
Despite gold prices doubling in less than two years, the market strongly bets against a decline by 2030, reflecting sustained bullish sentiment and no clear bearish catalysts.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
The market is skeptical that Paul Christiano, a former competitive StarCraft 2 player now focused on AI safety, will return to the game and achieve a modest rank (Gold League) by 2030, with the 24% Yes indicating a belief that his gaming career is effectively over.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
15 outcomes
5 outcomes
5 outcomes
The market heavily discounts Fresnillo exceeding 45M oz due to explicit US trade threats against Mexican silver supply, overshadowing strong recent industry revenues and a general supply crunch narrative.
Yes ≈ 36% chance
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 37% chance
7 outcomes
Yes ≈ 40% chance
The market heavily discounts the Robinhood Gold Card's unlimited 3% cash back persisting through 2030, reflecting that the feature is an outlier in a rapidly evolving competitive landscape where Robinhood itself is pivoting to a premium Platinum Card.
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Yes ≈ 55% chance
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Yes ≈ 46% chance