World prediction markets
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
3,751 markets · page 16 of 157
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
3,751 markets · page 16 of 157
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The near-even odds reflect a tug-of-war between evidence that Russia's war, Arctic ambitions, and authoritarian governance are worsening the climate crisis and counterarguments that global systemic factors dwarf Russia's role. The real question is whether Russia's actions constitute a net acceleration or are merely a symptom of larger trends.
Yes ≈ 48% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 43% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
11 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance