Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
Despite a weekend extreme heat warning, the market heavily discounts a 95°F high in Jacksonville on July 25 because forecast storms are expected to limit solar heating and keep temperatures well below that threshold.
📊 Base rate: Based on 30-year climate normals, Jacksonville's daily high reaches or exceeds 95°F on roughly 2-3% of July days, providing a baseline consistent with the current 2% Yes odds.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 forecast of 'extreme heat, storms ahead' (FL Times-Union) suggests both heat and storms, but the market interprets the storms as capping the high temperature below 95°F.
- • The historical rarity of 95°F in Jacksonville (see base rate) anchors the 98% No baseline, with no recent headline providing a compelling reason to deviate.
- • Earlier headlines showing record heat in April (The Weather Channel, Apr 10) and a March swing to extreme cold (Jacksonville Journal-Courier, Mar 27) illustrate typical spring variability, but do not indicate an exceptional summer heat wave in late July.
The case for YES
- • If the 'extreme heat' component of the July 24 forecast dominates and the storms hold off until after the afternoon peak, the high could still reach 95°F.
- • The April record heat wave (The Weather Channel) shows the region can reach extreme temperatures early in the season, suggesting a similar setup could recur in July.
- • The May forecast of heat 'won't last' (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13) implies a return to above-normal temperatures later in summer, which could include a 95°F day.
The case for NO
- • Storms typically bring cloud cover and rain, which reduce solar heating and make a 95°F high unlikely even if the airmass is warm.
- • Jacksonville's normal July high is around 91°F; reaching 95°F requires a combination of clear skies and a strong upper-level ridge that is not indicated by the latest forecast.
- • The market's 98% No reflects strong consensus that the forecast high is well below 95°F, likely in the low 90s or lower.
What to watch
- • Official high temperature reading for July 25 from the National Weather Service (expected within 24 hours) – would resolve the market to either 100% Yes if recorded high ≥95°F or 0% Yes if below.
- • Any updated local forecast before the afternoon maximum on July 25 could have moved the odds (but as of July 26, the event has likely already occurred).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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