Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_95
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market overwhelmingly expects Jacksonville's high to stay below 95°F today, despite a weekend heat-wave forecast, because the specific threshold is high relative to typical July highs and forecast storms may cap the temperature.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, the average daily high temperature on July 26 is around 91°F, and highs of 95°F or above occur on roughly 10-15% of late-July days based on historical climate normals.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 FL Times-Union headline warns of 'extreme heat, storms ahead,' suggesting that while heat is expected, accompanying storms could bring cloud cover or rain that limits the maximum temperature (FL Times-Union, Jul 24).
- • The market's 2% odds imply that weather models or forecasts are not predicting a 95°F high for today, despite the heat-wave narrative.
- • The April 10 Weather Channel headline noted record heat building in the East but did not specifically target Jacksonville, indicating that the heat wave may not be as intense in this city (The Weather Channel, Apr 10).
The case for YES
- • The July 24 headline explicitly mentions 'extreme heat' for Jacksonville this weekend, which could push temperatures above 95°F if the storms are less impactful than expected.
- • Record heat has been building in the Eastern U.S. since April, and Jacksonville has seen extreme temperature swings earlier in the year (e.g., March 27 record highs), showing vulnerability to heat spikes.
- • If the forecast heat wave materializes with clear skies, the afternoon sun could easily drive the high past 95°F, especially given the region's humidity and heat island effects.
The case for NO
- • The same July 24 headline links heat with storms, which typically bring rain and cloud cover that cool the air and prevent temperatures from reaching their full potential.
- • The historical average high for July 26 in Jacksonville is about 91°F, making 95°F a significant outlier that occurs only on a small fraction of days.
- • The market's 2% odds reflect strong consensus among traders, likely backed by specific short-term forecasts that call for a high well below 95°F.
What to watch
- • The mid-afternoon temperature reading around 2-3 PM EDT on July 26: if the temperature is already at 92°F or higher, odds for Yes could rise; if it is below 90°F, odds will stay near zero.
- • The official morning National Weather Service forecast update on July 26: any revision upward toward 95°F would increase Yes odds, while a steady or lower forecast would reinforce No.
- • Any radar or observation reports of early storms or cloud cover on July 26: if storms arrive before midday, the high will likely be capped, pushing odds further toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
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ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance