Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Next Fed rate hike? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 67% chance — likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 67% right now.
The market has swung from a coin-flip to a clear 69% probability of a rate hike, driven by a sudden wave of hawkish Fed commentary and expert warnings that the central bank may need to reverse its earlier cuts to combat resurgent inflation.
What's driving it
- • Fed officials publicly fretting over inflation risk and weighing rate hikes (Reuters, Jul 10) directly boosted the Yes case.
- • A MarketWatch expert cautioned that the Fed may need to undo rate cuts that stabilized the economy (MarketWatch, Jul 10), adding weight to a hike.
- • Trump's statement that he will defer to Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh on a rate hike before the midterms (Washington Examiner, Jul 10) removed a key political obstacle.
- • The odds jumped from roughly 50% on July 9 (CNBC) to 69% by July 26, reflecting the cumulative impact of these hawkish signals.
The case for YES
- • Persistent inflation above the Fed's target could force a hike, as officials are already fretting over inflation risk (Reuters).
- • The Fed may need to reverse its earlier rate cuts to prevent the economy from overheating, as experts warn (MarketWatch).
- • Political cover from Trump deferring to Warsh reduces the risk of White House pressure against a hike (Washington Examiner).
The case for NO
- • The Fed remains split on policy (CNBC), and internal disagreement could stall any move to hike.
- • Consumers are already piling on credit card debt amid rising prices and looming hikes (Investopedia), suggesting economic fragility that the Fed may avoid worsening.
- • The Fed might prioritize stability ahead of the midterm elections, even with Trump's deference, to avoid a politically unpopular rate increase.
What to watch
- • Upcoming FOMC meetings (September, November, December 2026): hawkish statements from members would push odds up; dovish statements would push them down.
- • Release of CPI or PCE inflation data in the coming months: higher-than-expected readings would increase the probability of a hike; lower readings would decrease it.
- • Midterm elections in November 2026: as the election approaches, the Fed may become more cautious, potentially lowering the odds of a hike.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
The market is nearly evenly split between a crash to $55 and a surge to $120, but the small recent shift toward the dump scenario reflects that near-term demand weakness and infrastructure investment are outweighing supply disruption risks for now.
2 outcomes
GOLD Price: Pump to $4.900 or Dump to $3.700?
Despite safe-haven demand from the Middle East conflict, gold is trading below $4,000 and facing a bearish 'death cross' technical pattern, pushing the market strongly toward a dump to $3,700 (71% odds) rather than a pump to $4,900.
2 outcomes
World’s largest company at the end of 2026
The field is highly concentrated on Nvidia, but the sum of top-three odds exceeding 100% reflects overlapping bets rather than certainty, and the biggest recent shift is the emergence of SpaceX as a speculative contender, as highlighted by Benzinga on June 16, which could fragment the race if its valuation narrative gains traction.
7 outcomes
Next target for the US interest rate (July)
The field is heavily concentrated on a rate hold at 76%, yet the 22% chance of a hike indicates genuine uncertainty, driven by the Fed chair's ambiguous signals and mixed global inflation data that could still tip the decision either way.
4 outcomes
Number of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
The market is heavily concentrated on zero cuts (72%), reflecting a clear consensus that the Fed under new Chair Warsh will hold rates steady through 2026. The recent Fed minutes (Jul 8) revealing 'inflation concerns grew' and a 'family fight' over rates have solidified the no-cut view, pushing the one-cut option below 25%.
7 outcomes
Fed decision in Jul 2026?
The field is highly concentrated on a hold, but the recent surge in oil prices near $100 (The Business Times, Jul 26) has injected fresh inflation fears, making a hike more plausible than the 78% hold odds suggest, while the Fed chair's deliberate opacity (MarketWatch, Jul 25) keeps the market guessing.
5 outcomes