Will Sam Smith have a #1 hit this year?

🗂 Part of event: Who will have a #1 hit this year? →

7¢Yes

6% 0 pts all-time

Yes

7¢

93¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.

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No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesDec 21, 2026 · 4mo

Total volume$215

Open interest$215

ListedJan 1, 2026

Source

Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Regulated exchangeSettled by Kalshi (CFTC-regulated)

Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.

Closes Dec 21, 2026 (4mo)

Resolution criteria

If Sam Smith has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Kalshi ↗