Fed decision in Sep 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Fed decision in Sep 2026? →💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Hike 25bps at about a 49% chance — a coin toss.
The field is a near-tie between a 25bp hike and a hold, with the oil price surge (The Business Times, Jul 26) likely shifting odds toward a hike, but Warsh's deliberate opacity (MarketWatch, Jul 25) keeps the hold probability high.
What's driving it
- • Oil near $100 reignites inflation fears, pressuring the Fed to hike (The Business Times, Jul 26).
- • Fed Chair Warsh's intentional lack of communication leaves investors guessing, supporting both hike and hold scenarios (MarketWatch, Jul 25).
- • Upcoming G7 central bank decisions amid rising oil prices signal a global tightening bias (Bloomberg via УНН, Jul 26).
Why the front-runners lead
- • Hike 25bps leads at 49% because oil-driven inflation fears make a small rate increase the most likely response to prevent expectations from de-anchoring.
- • Maintain leads at 46% because the Fed may want to wait for more data on the oil shock's persistence and Warsh's opacity suggests no pre-commitment to a hike.
Why it's still open
- • Cut 25bps at 4% could overtake if economic data weakens sharply, but no recent headlines support a recession narrative.
- • A larger hike (>25bps) at 3% could overtake if oil spikes further or inflation data surprises to the upside, but current oil at $100 is already priced in.
What to watch
- • The Fed's July 2026 rate decision (expected within days) will set the tone for September; a hike in July would raise the probability of another hike in September.
- • July CPI release (mid-August) will show whether oil price increases are passing through to core inflation; a high reading would boost hike odds.
- • The Bank of Japan's decision next week could affect USD/JPY and import prices, indirectly influencing Fed's inflation outlook.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
On Sep 16, 2026
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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