Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $750 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?
🗂 Part of event: MacBook base model price on Black Friday →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 93% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 93% right now.
Despite Apple's recent site-wide price hike (Business Insider, Jun 26), the market prices a sub-$750 MacBook on apple.com by Black Friday at 93% – a level that seems to bet on an unprecedented new entry-level model or a rare direct discount, neither of which is confirmed by headlines.
📊 Base rate: Historically, the lowest-priced new MacBook on Apple.com has stayed above $800 (e.g., MacBook Air starting at $999 or $1099), making a $750 threshold a significant break from precedent.
What's driving it
- • The June 26 price hike on Apple's site (Business Insider) should reduce the odds of a low-priced model, but the current 93% suggests traders are discounting this as temporary or expecting a new cheaper line.
- • The MacBook Neo comparison (PCMag, Jul 3) hints at a possible lower-priced alternative, though its official pricing on apple.com has not been announced.
- • Third-party deals like the $150-off MacBook Air M5 at Amazon (Tech Times, Jul 15) show demand at lower prices, but they do not apply to Apple.com's own pricing.
The case for YES
- • Apple could launch a new MacBook Neo or updated MacBook Air at a starting price below $750 before Black Friday, directly meeting the condition.
- • Apple sometimes offers rare site-wide discounts on Black Friday; if it cuts a model like the MacBook Air to $749 or below that day, the market resolves Yes.
- • The market's high confidence (93%) may reflect insider knowledge or a widely believed rumor that a sub-$750 MacBook will be available on apple.com by late November.
The case for NO
- • Apple's June 2026 price hikes (Business Insider) raised baseline prices, making it harder for any model to fall below $750 even with modest discounts.
- • Apple historically avoids discounting new MacBooks on its own site; third-party deals are common, but apple.com prices remain sticky above $999 for entry-level models.
- • The current odds (93% Yes) imply an extremely high probability that a specific event occurs, but the available headlines provide no direct evidence of a sub-$750 price plan, raising the risk of overpricing.
What to watch
- • Apple's September or October product event (if new MacBook models are announced, their starting prices will directly move odds; a sub-$750 base model would push Yes toward 100%, an above-$750 base would collapse the Yes).
- • Black Friday preview or Apple's official holiday sale announcement in November – if Apple confirms no discounts below $750, odds shift to No.
- • Any official pricing leak or supply-chain report about a budget MacBook line would provide a clear directional catalyst (Yes if under $750, No if above).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com is below $750, on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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