Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $2.21 by Dec 31?
🗂 Part of event: Price of NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute by Dec 31, 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
Despite the RTX 5090's high retail price and premium VRAM for AI, traders overwhelmingly expect its cloud compute per hour to stay below $2.21, likely due to competitive pressure from cheaper alternatives like the RTX 5070 Ti and emerging Chinese GPUs.
What's driving it
- • A July 20 comparison shows the RTX 5090 costs 2.7x the RTX 5070 Ti but offers only 2x VRAM, suggesting poor price-performance for AI workloads, which may dampen demand for 5090 compute rentals (tech-insider.org, Jul 20).
- • A May 25 report of a Chinese GPU maker selling 30,000 units in 48 hours indicates growing competition that could pressure NVIDIA's cloud pricing downward (Tom's Hardware, May 25).
- • The market's 95% No odds reflect a consensus that compute prices will remain low, possibly influenced by general trends in GPU availability and cloud pricing.
The case for YES
- • If AI demand for the RTX 5090's 2x VRAM advantage over the 5070 Ti proves strong enough to outweigh its higher price, cloud providers could raise compute per hour above $2.21.
- • Supply constraints or increased electricity costs could push rental prices higher, though no recent headlines indicate such constraints.
The case for NO
- • The RTX 5090's 2.7x price premium over the 5070 Ti makes it less attractive for cost-sensitive AI users, reducing demand for its compute and keeping prices low.
- • The rapid sellout of Chinese GPUs suggests a viable alternative supply that could further depress NVIDIA compute pricing.
- • The market's strong No consensus (95%) indicates that traders see no catalyst for a price spike above $2.21 by year-end.
What to watch
- • NVIDIA's next earnings report (expected late August 2026) – if management comments on cloud GPU pricing or demand, it could move odds; direction depends on tone.
- • Any announcement of new cloud GPU rental pricing from major providers like AWS or Azure – would directly affect the market; likely direction toward No if prices are cut, Yes if raised.
- • Release of competitive GPUs from AMD or Chinese manufacturers in H2 2026 – would likely push odds further toward No.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the value of RTX 5090 compute per hour is above $2.21 by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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