Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q3 2026 be above 4.20%?
🗂 Part of event: UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026 →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 92% chance — very likely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 92% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 4.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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