Which of these Elon's promises will be true? (Q125 financial results)

85¢Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '25

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Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '2585%

>1m of autonomous robotaxis in second half of '263%

>90% robotaxis marketshare in '262%

unsupervised full self-driving in consumer vehicles before '260%

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Paid autonomous ride-sharing service launch in Austin in June '25 at about a 85% chance — very likely.

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StatusOpen

ClosesDec 31, 2026 · 5mo

Total volumeⱮ948

Liquidity

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How it resolves

Creator-resolvedSettled by the market's creator

Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

Tesla just had the Q125 financial results and Electric is skeptical about the promises. https://electrek.co/2025/04/22/here-are-all-crazy-claims-elon-musk-made-tesla-self-driving-today/ Which will turn true? Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for Autonomous Ride-Sharing Service Launch: Launch Requirement: The service must be launched and have at least one paying customer. Driver Requirement: There must be no in-car driver; the service should rely on Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. Teleoperation Clause: The service can have teleoperator intervention, but if it is using teleoperation more than 90% of the time (i.e., using FSD less than 10% of the time), it will be resolved as a No. Ambiguity Clause: If the service appears autonomous but later is shown not to be autonomous at all, the resolution may be updated based on new information. Update 2026-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the >1 million autonomous robotaxis criterion: resolution requires at least 1 million robotaxis that each handled at least one paid ride.

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