Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 12% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 12% right now.
Despite escalating US-Iran conflict in the Strait, the market heavily favors No transit, suggesting traders expect the US to continue air strikes rather than risk naval assets in the narrow waterway.
What's driving it
- • US airstrikes on Iran (PBS, CNBC) indicate a strategy of stand-off attack rather than naval presence, reducing likelihood of warship transit.
- • Reinstatement of sanctions on Iranian oil (Reuters, Axios) shows economic pressure, not military naval deployment.
- • No headline to date confirms any US warship transit, with reports focusing on tanker attacks and US strikes, not naval movement.
- • The two tanker attacks in the Strait (Al Jazeera) could increase the need for escort, but so far no US warship has been reported transiting.
The case for YES
- • The US has already launched strikes against Iran (PBS, CNBC), and sending warships through the Strait would be a natural escalation to enforce freedom of navigation.
- • The revocation of oil waivers and sanctions (Reuters, Axios) signal a hardline stance that could include naval deterrent transit.
- • If shipping attacks continue, the US Navy may be compelled to transit warships to protect commercial vessels, as military cargo ships qualify as warships.
The case for NO
- • The US is currently using airstrikes as the primary response, avoiding the risk of sending warships through a narrow, contested strait where they could be targeted.
- • 72% probability indicates the market sees no credible reporting or government confirmation of transit, and the recent headlines lack any mention of warship movement.
- • The US may prefer to keep its warships outside the Strait to maintain strategic flexibility and avoid a direct naval confrontation that could escalate further.
What to watch
- • July 14: Potential Iranian retaliation against US forces could increase the likelihood of US warship transit, raising Yes odds.
- • July 31: Market expiration; if no transit occurs by this date, the odds will resolve No, but any confirmed transit in the final days would spike Yes.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Related markets
DOGE Up or Down - Daily
Despite a cascade of bearish headlines—including a 25% weekly plunge in early June and a down close on July 11—the market now assigns an 80% probability to DOGE closing up on the daily resolution, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp reversal or a catalyst not captured in the provided news.
Yes ≈ 80% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
The market prices just a 2% chance that Los Angeles saw exactly 81°F on July 25, 2026—a reflection of both the inherent rarity of any specific integer temperature and the context of an unusually hot spring that tilted the distribution upward.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
The contract for LAX on July 25, 2026, has effectively already resolved to No, with odds at 2% reflecting the observed high temperature below 81°F. The earlier heatwave headlines (March–April) do not directly explain this outcome, as the specific day did not meet the threshold.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
This market is effectively resolved: the event date (July 25, 2026) has passed, and the overwhelming 98% No odds indicate that actual temperature readings have already shown the high was not exactly 81°F, with final confirmation likely the only remaining step.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The market is pricing a 71% chance SUI ends the day up, driven by a recent price hold above $0.70 and surging transaction volume, but this optimism ignores two major network outages in recent months that could undermine confidence at any moment.
Yes ≈ 59% chance