Will the Bayeux Tapestry be back in France by July 31, 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Bayeux Tapestry back in France by…? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 43% chance — less likely than not.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 43% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
If the Bayeux Tapestry enters France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, entrance is defined as any portion of the Bayeux Tapestry physically entering the terrestrial territory of France. Whether or not it enters French airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. This market will remain open for seven days after the specified date to allow time for confirmation of the Tapestry's entrance into France. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
DOGE Up or Down - Daily
Despite a cascade of bearish headlines—including a 25% weekly plunge in early June and a down close on July 11—the market now assigns an 80% probability to DOGE closing up on the daily resolution, suggesting traders are betting on a sharp reversal or a catalyst not captured in the provided news.
Yes ≈ 80% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
The market prices just a 2% chance that Los Angeles saw exactly 81°F on July 25, 2026—a reflection of both the inherent rarity of any specific integer temperature and the context of an unusually hot spring that tilted the distribution upward.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
The market sees advanced embryo selection as still niche and ethically fraught, but recent coverage of genetic optimization startups and IVF's expanding role in family planning suggests the technology is gaining momentum, making the 100,000-conception threshold plausible if regulatory and adoption barriers fall.
Yes ≈ 26% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
The contract for LAX on July 25, 2026, has effectively already resolved to No, with odds at 2% reflecting the observed high temperature below 81°F. The earlier heatwave headlines (March–April) do not directly explain this outcome, as the specific day did not meet the threshold.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Los Angeles Daily Temperature High (81)
This market is effectively resolved: the event date (July 25, 2026) has passed, and the overwhelming 98% No odds indicate that actual temperature readings have already shown the high was not exactly 81°F, with final confirmation likely the only remaining step.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
SUI Up or Down - Daily
The market is pricing a 71% chance SUI ends the day up, driven by a recent price hold above $0.70 and surging transaction volume, but this optimism ignores two major network outages in recent months that could undermine confidence at any moment.
Yes ≈ 59% chance