Culture prediction markets
Awards, entertainment, and pop-culture questions, aggregated across every venue.
5,526 markets · page 6 of 231
Will I record an album with my black metal band in 2026?
Yes ≈ 73% chance
Awards, entertainment, and pop-culture questions, aggregated across every venue.
5,526 markets · page 6 of 231
Yes ≈ 73% chance
Yes ≈ 90% chance
Adele's next album title being a number is heavily favored at 79% because her last three studio albums (19, 21, 25, 30) all used numbers, creating a strong pattern. However, recent headlines about Harry Styles and Taylor Swift breaking her sales records may pressure her to change strategy, though no direct statement from Adele or her team has been reported.
Yes ≈ 79% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
16 outcomes
Yes ≈ 68% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 53% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 96% chance
Yes ≈ 76% chance
Yes ≈ 97% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
The market is betting against a Manifold movie largely because the name 'Manifold' is currently tied to a BP scandal, not a film franchise, and the broader Indian film industry is in financial distress, making a speculative biopic or adaptation unlikely within 20 years.
Yes ≈ 40% chance