Interest rates, inflation, jobs, and Fed decisions, shown as the crowd's implied probabilities.
5,970 markets · page 100 of 249
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 33% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Traders are overwhelmingly confident the Dollar Index will move at least 0.20% on July 29, but without recent headlines, the reason for this confidence is unclear.
Yes ≈ 89% chance
Yes ≈ 74% chance
The market is pricing a 62% chance of a 0.60% daily swing in the dollar index on July 29, 2026, which is high relative to typical daily moves, but no recent headlines explain the elevated odds, suggesting the price may reflect positioning or algorithmic activity rather than a fundamental catalyst.
Yes ≈ 54% chance
The market implies a 36% chance of a 1% daily move in the dollar index, which is above the historical base rate of roughly 10–15%, suggesting traders are pricing in elevated uncertainty or a specific event risk despite no clear recent catalyst.
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
The market heavily discounts a 1.8% daily swing in the dollar index by late July 2026, reflecting a view that such large moves are rare outside of major shocks, but the odds may be mispriced if a key data release or policy surprise occurs.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance